Saturday
The national debt is too large to sustain any meaningful increase in interest rates. It’s all talk.
Thus, it makes sense for corporations to continue borrowing to fund share buy backs and dividends. Borrowing funds at low interest rates in order to declare a dividend is a peculiar phenomenon that definitely falls into the category of ‘perverse incentives create perverse outcomes’.
While such shenanigans are still possible, there will also be no stock market crash. Nor will there be a bond market crash. I see no signs that the juggler’s balls cannot be kept in the air for a while longer.
Interest rates will go up when the market puts them up, not when the Fed says that it will.
All is well – until it isn’t.