Sunday
The reason that all those who have been predicting hyperinflation have been wrong for so long is not hard to find.
They are adherents to the Quantity Theory of Money. The QTM states that the more ‘money’ (fiat) is in circulation, the higher that prices will rise. The theory is economically, historically and demonstrably wrong. Many, many factors, entirely independent of the stock of fiat, cause prices to both rise and fall. And, how is the pancake cook supposed to know how much fiat is in circulation in order that he can determine how much to raise his prices?
At some point, there may be (probably will be) hyperinflation, but not yet. That will be at the point where borrowing (via the bonds market) is no longer possible and outright printing takes over. We are a long way off that.
Of interest is the following graph. It is now two years old, but my guess is that the same trajectory has continued.
The price rises that do exist are emanating from the government sector. They monopolise essential services and don’t have to worry about their customer’s ability to pay – they have no choice, they have to pay. That mindset dramatically thins the wallet available to the private sector.
The pancake cook doesn’t care how many fiat notes are circulating, he desperately needs to increase his prices to cover the skyrocketing costs of ‘essential services’, but cannot. His customers cannot afford it. Both parties are being skinned alive. Meanwhile, gullible children around the world march to demand that ‘essential services’ cost even more.
We truly do live in a world gone mad. Us ‘60s hippies had nothing on the batty ideas of this generation.