A friend in Melbourne is delighted at how well his restaurant is going since the re-opening. They are doing almost 50% of what they were doing before the shutdown. Take-per-head, a vital metric in the industry, is up considerably. It can only build from here – right?
Not so fast.
That proportion of the market that still have their jobs were under house arrest for more than two months. There is some pent-up demand.
That proportion of the market that are either not working or are on minimal hours are either on Job-Keeper at $750p.w., or on Job-Seeker at $550p.w. Many have never had it so good and have been itching to spend some of the loot.
What happens when the ‘free money’ stops in September?
What happens when those that have jobs find themselves terminated because business activity and thus income is insufficient to pay them anymore?
What happens when the aggregate of those circumstances make employers and employees even more fearful than they already are?
What happens when the realization hits that an economy that was already failing before the Great Hysteria has been pushed into a full-blown depression?
As covered before, the Golden Age of Dining is over. Only the leanest will survive from here. That means family run businesses run with zero hired labour.