The likelihood is that we are now only months away from the beginning of the Mother of All Depressions (M.O.D.).
The M.O.D. is no longer something in the far off distance. It is not possible with the world in chaos to state with any certainty how the disaster will unfold, but the following is an overview of the likely scenario.
More businesses will collapse with the increase in interest rates (due in days) making their loans un-serviceable. The foreclosed family homes that the loans were made against will, by 2023, begin to flood an already weak housing market. The Reserve Bank will reverse course, but it will be too late. Once the businesses are shuttered and the staff sacked, the capital is destroyed and is not coming back.
Even those who still have jobs will begin to feel fear. Disposable income will fall as people seek to pay off household debt. That fall will see the collapse of more businesses – the beginning of a spiral of insolvency.
The collapse of private home ownership will produce a crisis for the banks. The government has plans to ‘manage’ this. The plans will not work. The Australian residential property market is valued at over 9 TRILLION dollars (2021). That is a giant that even the government will not be able to cudgel into submission.
A towering sovereign debt wobbles menacingly over the remnants of the Australian economy, but what is even more wobbly, and what will collapse first, is government revenues – taxation. Businesses failing equals joblessness equals a collapse in taxation – i.e. the ability to service the debt.
Whammo; game over.
The M.O.D. will not, of course, be restricted to Australia, but it will impact badly here because the majority of people, accustomed to permanent prosperity, will not be able to adapt to the change – particularly those in the cities.
Most Australians do not have the wit to have a backup food store – not even a vegetable garden.
The weakest link next to food supply is debt; anyone with debt, any debt, is at risk. The size of the debt determines the degree of risk. Australia has one of the highest household debts in the world, estimated at a staggering 119.30% of the country’s GDP (HERE).
Worse than the price rise of foodstuffs is that the availability will be restricted by shortages of diesel. Trucks deliveries will become intermittent. Less trucks equals less delivery – of food or everything else. Very little is not delivered via trucks.
The proverbial S^&* is about to hit the fan.