Sunday
Excuse my typographical symbols!
The Prigozhin led coup attempt in Russia is the dominant news du jour. Prigozhin is, according to reports, a fabulously wealthy man. Therefore one must assume that his perfidy is due to ambition. The two lusts of the puerile are money and power. Think Gates, Soros, Schwab etc. I would add a third to that list – ‘esteem’. Be that as it may.
Will Prigozhin succeed in his coup? Well, speaking from a long way away and with a paucity of data, I am reduced to guesses.
My guess is that he will fail.
With the data that is at hand (to me), it would appear that this has been long in the planning. All that it was waiting for was some sort of weakening at the border via the Ukraine ‘offensive’. Then Prigozhin would make his move resulting in troops being pulled from the border in order to defend Moscow which in turn would lead to the Ukraine army breaking through to join Wagner in the march to Moscow.
Prigozhin would end up as the new Russian leader, presiding over the dismemberment by the West of a once proud country and culture.
What seems likely to me, is that no breakthrough will happen via the terminally emaciated Ukraine army. And what seems probable is that the Wagner group, reported to be 25,000 strong, will face Chechens from the south, Russian troops from Belorussia from the west (leaving enough troops there to ensure that the crazy Poles don’t cross the border) and the hastily assembled main Russian army in front.
The schemers in the west have continued to completely overestimate the ability of the Ukraine military and underestimate the resilience, professionalism and logistical superiority of the Russians.
Interesting times. Putin is a far cry from sainthood, but he is what is keeping the world from a very dark place at the moment.
The U.S./U.K. have gone totally rogue. The Europeans are just piss weak and will do what they are told.
If Prigozhin fails, then he will be hanged or shot.
My last guess is that his own force will rebel. Yes, they are mostly criminals, but they are still Russians and will not believe the fanciful lies of Prigozhin’s western backers which are fit only for naïve consumers of the West’s mainstream media.
Putin is now in his end game. To that degree the U.S. has won. Putin trusted Prigozhin, his military elite obviously never did. One way or another, in time, he will pay for that poor judgement.
The next leader of what is left of Russia will not be as civilized as Putin. Putin’s flaw is that he was too reasonable (Minsk I and 2 & the Turkiye agreement that saw him withdraw his troops from Kiev). A more determined leader of Russia is the likely outcome of this out-of-left-field incident.
But that won’t happen until Prigozhin is hanged, shot or in hiding.